It’s Ladies First In TN & Bengal As Amma & Didi Sweep In With 5/6th & 3/4th Majority. Congress Scrapes Through In Kerala, Retains Assam By Huge Margin, But Loses Puducherry. ‘Red Fort’ Falls After 34 Years
Corruption And Arrogance Feel Fury Of Landslides
TIMES NEWS NETWORK
Almost one-third of Indians will now be ruled by women. With Mamata Banerjee and J Jayalalitha storming to power on Friday in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, they join two other women chief ministers, Mayawati and Sheila Dikshit, to administer 368 million, or around 30% of India’s 1.2 billion population.
But the day didn’t belong to the women alone. It also belonged to the wise Indian voter who punished the corrupt and the arrogant with ferocious intent. CPM’s impregnable bastion of Bengal, increasingly working more for its cadre than the people, was blown to bits and its 34-year-old hegemony ended, while a corruption-tainted DMK, running Tamil Nadu like a family profit centre, was consigned to the dustbin.
The outcomes in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu dwarfed Tarun Gogoi’s hat-trick in Assam, the Congress’s shock defeat in Puducherry and the Left’s better-than-expected performance in Kerala, where it fell agonisingly short of the finishing line — 0.7% of the votes and four seats were the difference between the two fronts, UDF and LDF.
Mamata’s landslide was smaller than Jayalalithaa’s, but possibly more significant given the Left’s invincibility over three decades in Bengal. Left’s defeat is a demoralizing blow— it is now without power in both Bengal and Kerala for the first time since 1977. Worse, it comes at a time when it is without leverage at the Centre and Marxism has lost some of its appeal. To add insult to injury, CPM finished in the third place in West Bengal, behind even the Congress which won 42 seats against its 40.
The message in Tamil Nadu was arguably sharper. Burying the cynicism about corruption and the talk that it’s a non-issue with voters, the Tamil Nadu electorate virtually atomized the 2G-scam tainted DMK, leaving it with just 23 seats in a House of 234, while awarding Jayalalithaa a stunning fivesixths majority. The vote difference between the AIADMK and DMK fronts was a yawning 12.6%.
The Left’s remarkable recovery in Kerala under V S Achuthanandan can hardly be salve for CPM or its boss Prakash Karat. Having presided over the party’s meltdown, Karat may have to answer some tough questions on the slide since 2004 when the party, with a record tally of 62 for the combined Left, called the shots at the Centre as well as in the two states of Kerala and Bengal.
Oommen Chandy of Congress is the front runner for the Kerala chief minister’s post. But whoever the CM, he is likely to wear a crown of thorns. Given its wafer-thin majority, the Congress-led UDF is likely to be pressured by Kerala Congress (Mani) which has won nine seats. IT’S 3-2 FOR CONG BY A WHISKER
Till a few months ago, there was talk of a 5-0 clean sweep for Cong & allies. Instead, it’s been humiliated in TN and Puducherry, and won very narrowly (72-68) in Kerala, including 5 seats by less than 750 votes each (difference in vote share for entire state was just 0.7%).
In Bengal, Cong will be at Mamata’s mercy — with 2/3 majority of her own, she doesn’t need anyone’s support to survive in govt
But it stands taller vis-avis its two main national challengers, BJP and Left
Cong’s dependence on allies won’t go away. DMK leverage at Centre reduced; Cong may not dump it
Wafer-thin victory in Kerala leaves it vulnerable to pressures from ally
Kerala Cong (Mani) which has won 9 seats
Gogoi’s hat-trick in Assam proves once again that if state leaders are allowed to grow, they deliver at polls
(other instances: YSR, Sheila, Hooda, Nitish, Modi)
Dark clouds in AP: Rebel Jagan Reddy trounces Cong in Kadapa LS poll LEFT IN THE LURCH
After dismal show in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the loss of Bengal and Kerala a hammer blow
Setback for gen secy Prakash Karat who will be seen to have presided over CPM’s decimation. Won’t even be credited with the only redeeming feature of Left’s performance — its better-thanexpected performance in Kerala — since that’s more due to Achuthanandan, whom Karat wanted out
But Bengal comrades’ argument that their poor performance in LS polls was due to Karat line on N-deal and Third Front doesn’t wash after this Assembly rout BJP LOTUS DOESN’T BLOOM
140m people voted in this election, but BJP remains a marginal force.
Geographical limits of its appeal exposed
Assam has been a big disappointment. Was hoping to win a few seats in Bengal, but drawn a blank
Increases pressure on party to do well in next polls in UP, Punjab, U’khand DMK FEELS 2G HEAT
DMK’s rout in TN may end 87-yr-old Karuna & clan’s political future. Could put daughter Kanimozhi at even greater risk in 2G scam
Kerala witnesses voting on community lines. Muslims go with IUML, Christians with Cong, Hindus broadly with Left Cong, a collateral victim in Tamil Nadu elections
With Mamata Banerjee, J Jayalalitha clinching victory in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, they along with other Mayawati and Sheila Dikshit will administer around 30% of India’s 1.2 billion population.
Unlike CPM, DMK has been used to losing polls in a state where power has changed hands between Karunanidhi and Jaya every five years since the early 1990s. Yet, the scale of Jayalalithaa’s win (her second-best performance ever) must have come as a real shocker for the Karunanidhi clan. Not only did their representatives believe the 2G scam was a nonissue, they thought the shower of cash on the eve of polls would reap them a rich harvest. This cynicism was decisively repudiated by the TN voter.
The rebuff for DMK couldn’t have come at a worse time as it reels under the 2G scam fallout. It has drastically altered the terms of trade with the Congress, reducing it to the status of a junior partner that desperately needs a friendly regime at the Centre as insurance cover against a Jayalalithaa who has so far not been known for being magnanimous in moments of triumph. It may not be possible for the DMK to leverage its 18 Lok Sabha members to seek to restrain the agencies working on the spectrum scam just when the probe has reached Karunanidhi’s doorstep.
Given that this was, by all accounts, his last election, the DMK patriarch would have certainly wished to leave on a better note. The only redeeming factor is that the 87-year old stalwart has been spared the messy business of sorting out which of his two sons, M K Stalin or M K Alagiri, should be his successor.
The Congress has been a big collateral victim in Tamil Nadu. Clearly, its attempts to distance itself from the DMK’s scam taint found few takers at the hustings.
Paired with the loss in Puducherry, the abject showing in TN takes away a lot from the satisfaction it may derive from the 3-2 scoreline. In fact, the party would have been worse off had it not been for its four-seat lead over the Left in Kerala. A 2-3 scorecard could have deepened the party’s problems over a spate of corruption charges and the perception of drift at the Centre and in the organization.
There was, however, no ambiguity about the Congress win in Assam under Tarun Gogoi’s leadership. The results surpassed the party’s own expectations and were facilitated by the peace process with the ULFA insurgents—something that along with development schemes trumped complaints of corruption. A splintered opposition contributed massively.
There are other positives for the Congress — the Left’s decline and the BJP’s failure in Assam means that it stands taller in comparison to them on the national stage. The Left’s slide also means a blow to any future attempt to resurrect a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition. The pathetic showing of the AGP in Assam and the TDP in the Andhra Pradesh byelections should also nix any Third Front dreams. A chastened DMK and a Mamata Banerjee who as chief minister of Bengal would appreciate a helpful Centre should buffer the Congress against being bullied.
But the victory of rebel Jaganmohan Reddy in the Kadapa bypoll spells a new threat for the party in Andhra Padesh which was so crucial for the Congresss back-to-back wins in Lok Sabha elections. Kadapa being the family turf of Jagan, he was expected to win. But the margin may encourage him to step up the challenge to the party.
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